Probable winners of 2010 World Cup

As the 2010 World Cup will be the first to be hosted on the African continent it is worth considering whether the climate will be a factor in determining who wins the Jules Rimet trophy. The tournament will be held during the South African winter so any concerns over the impact of heat on certain players will be limited. The average temperature during June and July does not rise much beyond the early twenties centigrade and is comparable to a Northern European summer. This should mean that there will be no great disadvantage to countries from the Northern hemisphere as has been the case with some World Cups when they are played in intense heat.

With 500 days to go to the opening match, it should be noted that there is still a long way to go even in the qualifying campaigns, most of which are not even halfway through yet, so we do not know who will be there for certain apart from the hosts. Interestingly, Paraguay currently lead the South American group, six points ahead of second placed Brazil with Argentina even further off the pace.

it is difficult to envision any winners coming from outside the traditional football strongholds of Europe and South America. None of the Asian, Oceanic or North/Central American group can be considered too seriously. The only realistic contenders to upset the duopoly of Europe and South America winners appear to be the stronger African countries such as Ghana and Ivory Coast but history suggests that they will not make it beyond the Quarter final stage, even on their own continent.

So we the likelihood is that the winners will come from the top Europeans, Brazil or Argentina. Neither France nor Germany seem to be rebuilding very effectively, both Netherlands and Portugal have always flattered to deceive at World Cups, and reigning champions Italy do not appear to be going forwards. So of the Europeans, following their Euro 08 success Spain will be full of confidence and England are definitely on the way up under Capello.

As for the two South American giants, both are blessed with some of the most skilful and attractive ball players in world football but they also possess the steely strength required of World Cup winners. There is very little to choose between the two but Maradona may make the difference as the new coach. Ultimately, I foresee a final pitching Argentina against England with Diego proving yet again to be England's nemesis as Argentina carry off the trophy for the first time since 1986.